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CEOV Operário vs Interporto — Serie D 2018

CEOV Operário
CEOV Operário
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Interporto
Interporto
6/18/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Dito Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

CEOV Operário77%
×Draw15%
Interporto8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CEOV Operário
2.60
Interporto
0.74

CEOV Operário creates 251% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

creates per match

CEOV Operário
1.36
Interporto
0.23

allows per match

CEOV Operário
1.25
Interporto
3.85

finishing

CEOV Operário+0.00on par
Interporto+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CEOV Operário ↓

Interporto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

CEOV Operário or draw
92%
CEOV Operário or Interporto
85%
Draw or Interporto
23%

Winning margin

CEOV Operário wins by 2+
55%
Interporto wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

CEOV Operário 1+ goals
92%
CEOV Operário 2+ goals
73%
CEOV Operário 3+ goals
47%
Interporto 1+ goals
52%
Interporto 2+ goals
17%
Interporto 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CEOV Operário (draw refunded)
90%
Interporto (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CEOV Operário at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Interporto away — creates 0.23, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CEOV Operário attack 1.36 + Interporto defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 2.60

Interporto attack 0.23 + CEOV Operário defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

CEOV Operário scores more
77%
level
15%
Interporto scores more
8%

CEOV Operário at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "CEOV Operário will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CEOV Operário vs Interporto

CEOV Operário beat Interporto 6-0 in Serie D on June 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Dito Souza in Várzea Grande, Mato Grosso.