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Interporto vs 4 de Julho — Serie D 2018

Interporto
Interporto
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
4 de Julho
4 de Julho
5/27/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 6Estádio General Sampaio (Porto Nacional, Tocantins)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Interporto29%
×Draw32%
4 de Julho39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Interporto
0.84
4 de Julho
1.02

4 de Julho creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Interporto
0.69
4 de Julho
0.58

allows per match

Interporto
1.46
4 de Julho
1.00

finishing

Interporto+0.00on par
4 de Julho+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Interporto ↓

4 de Julho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Interporto or draw
61%
Interporto or 4 de Julho
68%
Draw or 4 de Julho
71%

Winning margin

Interporto wins by 2+
10%
4 de Julho wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Interporto 1+ goals
57%
Interporto 2+ goals
21%
Interporto 3+ goals
5%
4 de Julho 1+ goals
64%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
27%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Interporto (draw refunded)
43%
4 de Julho (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Interporto at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

4 de Julho away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Interporto attack 0.69 + 4 de Julho defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

4 de Julho attack 0.58 + Interporto defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Interporto scores more
29%
level
32%
4 de Julho scores more
39%

4 de Julho at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "4 de Julho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Interporto 1 – 1 4 de Julho

Interporto and 4 de Julho drew 1-1 in Serie D on May 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio General Sampaio (Porto Nacional, Tocantins).