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4 de Julho vs Interporto — Serie D 2018

4 de Julho
4 de Julho
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Interporto
Interporto
4/22/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 1Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara (Piripiri, Piauí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

4 de Julho79%
×Draw14%
Interporto7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4 de Julho
2.63
Interporto
0.64

4 de Julho creates 311% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

4 de Julho
1.42
Interporto
0.23

allows per match

4 de Julho
1.05
Interporto
3.85

finishing

4 de Julho+0.00on par
Interporto+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

4 de Julho ↓

Interporto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

4 de Julho or draw
93%
4 de Julho or Interporto
86%
Draw or Interporto
21%

Winning margin

4 de Julho wins by 2+
58%
Interporto wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

4 de Julho 1+ goals
93%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
73%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
48%
Interporto 1+ goals
47%
Interporto 2+ goals
14%
Interporto 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

4 de Julho (draw refunded)
92%
Interporto (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

4 de Julho at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Interporto away — creates 0.23, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

4 de Julho attack 1.42 + Interporto defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 2.63

Interporto attack 0.23 + 4 de Julho defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

4 de Julho scores more
79%
level
14%
Interporto scores more
7%

4 de Julho at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "4 de Julho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 4 de Julho vs Interporto

4 de Julho beat Interporto 1-0 in Serie D on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara (Piripiri, Piauí).