Internacional 2–0 Sport Recife: Result & Stats

Internacional

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Recife

Bruno Henrique 68'

R. Borre 24'

10/19/2025

Serie A · Round 29Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Internacional50%

×Draw26%

Sport Recife24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InternacionalExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.95

Internacional

1.52

Sport Recife

0.95

Internacional creates 60% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 9 away

1.77

creates per match

1.06

0.83

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Internacional

1.77

Sport Recife

1.06

allows per match

Internacional

0.83

Sport Recife

1.26

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.73scores less than expected

finishing

Internacional-0.22scores less

Sport Recife-0.73scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Internacional or draw

76%

Internacional or Sport Recife

74%

Draw or Sport Recife

50%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+

26%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals

78%

Internacional 2+ goals

45%

Internacional 3+ goals

20%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

61%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

25%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)

68%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.83 · 33 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 1.77 + Sport Recife defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sport Recife attack 1.06 + Internacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Internacional scores more

50%

level

26%

Sport Recife scores more

24%

Internacional at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Carbonero

Internacional · F

8.2

Match Events

24'

R. Borre↳ Vitinho

44'

Lucas Lima

46'

R. Atencio← C. Rivera

46'

S. Oliveira← Lucas Lima

53'

Rafael Thyere

59'

A. Benitez← B. Aguirre

59'

A. Rodriguez← Vitinho

62'

Johan Carbonero

65'

Thiago Maia

65'

Ronaldo← Thiago Maia

66'

Bruno Henrique← Bruno Gomes

68'

Bruno Henrique↳ J. Carbonero

74'

Chrystian Barletta← Romarinho

81'

Igor Carius← Matheusinho

81'

Pablo← Ze Lucas

84'

Raykkonen← R. Borre

88'

Ronaldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalSport

Overview

35%Possession65%

13Total Shots13

1.69Expected Goals (xG)1.00

3Corners6

13Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots13

5On Target2

5Off Target5

3Blocked6

10Inside Box10

3Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

294Total Passes550

232Accurate Passes487

79%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.10Goals Prevented0.10

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2