Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Internacional vs Sport Recife — Serie A 2026

Internacional
Internacional
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Sport Recife
Sport Recife
5/30/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 1Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Internacional50%
×Draw26%
Sport Recife24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional
1.52
Sport Recife
0.95

Internacional creates 60% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 9 away

creates per match

Internacional
1.77
Sport Recife
1.06

allows per match

Internacional
0.83
Sport Recife
1.26

finishing

Internacional-0.22scores less
Sport Recife-0.73scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

Sport Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Internacional or draw
76%
Internacional or Sport Recife
74%
Draw or Sport Recife
50%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+
26%
Sport Recife wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals
78%
Internacional 2+ goals
45%
Internacional 3+ goals
20%
Sport Recife 1+ goals
61%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
25%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)
68%
Sport Recife (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.83 · 33 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 1.77 + Sport Recife defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sport Recife attack 1.06 + Internacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Internacional scores more
50%
level
26%
Sport Recife scores more
24%

Internacional at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Internacional 2–2 Sport Recife

Internacional and Sport Recife drew 2-2 in Serie A on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.