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Internacional vs Bahia — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Internacional
Internacional
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bahia
Bahia
5/28/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Internacional54%
×Draw27%
Bahia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional
1.46
Bahia
0.75

Internacional creates 95% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 6 away

creates per match

Internacional
2.09
Bahia
0.50

allows per match

Internacional
1.00
Bahia
0.83

finishing

Internacional+0.00on par
Bahia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

Bahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Internacional or draw
81%
Internacional or Bahia
73%
Draw or Bahia
46%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+
27%
Bahia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals
77%
Internacional 2+ goals
43%
Internacional 3+ goals
18%
Bahia 1+ goals
53%
Bahia 2+ goals
17%
Bahia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)
74%
Bahia (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Bahia away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 2.09 + Bahia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bahia attack 0.50 + Internacional defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Internacional scores more
54%
level
27%
Bahia scores more
19%

Internacional at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Internacional vs Bahia

Internacional beat Bahia 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre.