Bahia 1–1 Internacional: Result & Stats

Bahia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional

Jean Lucas 73'

E. Valencia 84'

4/3/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Arena Fonte Nova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bahia43%

×Draw31%

Internacional26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BahiaExpected goals in this matchInternacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.81

Bahia

1.14

Internacional

0.81

Bahia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

1.40

creates per match

0.83

0.80

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Bahia

1.40

Internacional

0.83

allows per match

Bahia

0.80

Internacional

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia+0.00on par

Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia ↓

Internacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bahia or draw

74%

Bahia or Internacional

69%

Draw or Internacional

57%

Winning margin

Bahia wins by 2+

18%

Internacional wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bahia 1+ goals

68%

Bahia 2+ goals

32%

Bahia 3+ goals

11%

Internacional 1+ goals

56%

Internacional 2+ goals

19%

Internacional 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bahia (draw refunded)

63%

Internacional (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Internacional away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia attack 1.40 + Internacional defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.14

Internacional attack 0.83 + Bahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bahia scores more

43%

level

31%

Internacional scores more

26%

Bahia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

46

Luciano Juba

Bahia · D

8.0

Match Events

36'

39'

48'

57'

60'

J. Carbonero← Vitinho

60'

E. Valencia← R. Borre

60'

Ronaldo← Bruno Henrique

71'

Erick← Cauly

72'

Gilberto← S. Arias

72'

Ademir← Everton Ribeiro

72'

A. Rogel← Juninho

72'

Thiago Maia← Wesley

73'

Jean Lucas↳ Luciano Juba

77'

Rodrigo← Caio Alexandre

84'

E. Valencia

87'

Willian Jose← Erick Pulga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BahiaInternacional

Overview

60%Possession40%

21Total Shots8

1.73Expected Goals (xG)0.93

4Corners2

4Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots8

7On Target5

10Off Target1

4Blocked2

14Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

583Total Passes394

527Accurate Passes346

90%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

0.78Goals Prevented0.78

Discipline

4Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Bahia vs Internacional

Bahia and Internacional drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 3, 2025.

Goals: Jean Lucas (73'), E. Valencia (84').

Bahia controlled possession (60%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador.

Bahia vs Internacional — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bahia vs Internacional