Internacional 4–3 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Internacional

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

America de Cali

Boschilia 90', 19'

A. Hernández 32', 1'

S. Moreno 78'

A. Ramos 49'

D. Vergara 28'

9/16/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Internacional54%

×Draw23%

America de Cali23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InternacionalExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.06

Internacional

1.77

America de Cali

1.06

Internacional creates 67% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 6 away

2.04

creates per match

1.17

0.96

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Internacional

2.04

America de Cali

1.17

allows per match

Internacional

0.96

America de Cali

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Internacional or draw

77%

Internacional or America de Cali

77%

Draw or America de Cali

46%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+

30%

America de Cali wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals

83%

Internacional 2+ goals

53%

Internacional 3+ goals

26%

America de Cali 1+ goals

65%

America de Cali 2+ goals

29%

America de Cali 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)

70%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 2.04 + America de Cali defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.77

America de Cali attack 1.17 + Internacional defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Internacional scores more

54%

level

23%

America de Cali scores more

23%

Internacional at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

A. Hernández

Internacional · F

8.9

Match Events

1'

10'

19'

26'

28'

D. Vergara↳ C. Sierra

32'

A. Hernández

40'

Luis Alejandro Paz

49'

A. Ramos

65'

L. Fernández← A. Hernández

65'

Johnny← Nonato

67'

S. Moreno← J. Pérez

68'

Carlos Sierra

73'

F. Jaramillo← L. Paz

78'

S. Moreno↳ D. Vergara

81'

A. D'Alessandro← Rodrigo Lindoso

83'

Rodrigo Moledo

85'

J. Arias← D. Vergara

90+4'

Lucas Ribeiro← Boschilia

90'

Boschilia↳ Johnny

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalAmerica

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots13

7Corners3

21Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots13

9On Target7

7Off Target5

3Blocked1

12Inside Box9

7Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

471Total Passes336

394Accurate Passes258

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

21Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Internacional 4–3 America de Cali

Internacional beat America de Cali 4-3 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on September 16, 2020.

Goals: A. Hernández (1', 32'), Boschilia (19', 90'), D. Vergara (28'), A. Ramos (49'), S. Moreno (78').

Internacional controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.

Internacional vs America de Cali — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Internacional 4–3 America de Cali