America de Cali 0–0 Internacional: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional

9/30/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

America de Cali27%

×Draw30%

Internacional43%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchInternacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.17

America de Cali

0.85

Internacional

1.17

Internacional creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

0.83

creates per match

0.83

1.50

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

America de Cali

0.83

Internacional

0.83

allows per match

America de Cali

1.50

Internacional

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Internacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–116%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

57%

America de Cali or Internacional

70%

Draw or Internacional

73%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

9%

Internacional wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

57%

America de Cali 2+ goals

21%

America de Cali 3+ goals

5%

Internacional 1+ goals

69%

Internacional 2+ goals

33%

Internacional 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

38%

Internacional (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Internacional away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 0.83 + Internacional defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.85

Internacional attack 0.83 + America de Cali defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

America de Cali scores more

27%

level

30%

Internacional scores more

43%

Internacional at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Ramos

America de Cali · F

7.7

Match Events

1'

L. Paz

12'

Heitor← R. Saravia

46'

Boschilia← Bruno Praxedes

53'

53'

58'

61'

63'

D. Musto← Nonato

67'

Y. Cabrera← J. Arias

78'

S. Moreno← E. Batalla

79'

A. Hernández← Thiago Galhardo

85'

R. Moledo

90+4'

R. Carrascal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaInternacional

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots6

9Corners2

22Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots6

3On Target1

7Off Target3

4Blocked2

11Inside Box1

3Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

346Total Passes291

249Accurate Passes200

72%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Internacional

America de Cali and Internacional drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on September 30, 2020.

America de Cali controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.

America de Cali vs Internacional — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Internacional