Internacional SC U20 0–3 Criciuma U20

Internacional SC U20

FT

0 – 3

Criciuma U20

5/7/2024

Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Vidal Ramos Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Internacional SC U205%

×Draw13%

Criciuma U2082%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional SC U20Expected goals in this matchCriciuma U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.51

2.62

Internacional SC U20

0.51

Criciuma U20

2.62

Criciuma U20 creates 414% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 29 away

0.40

creates per match

1.14

4.10

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Internacional SC U20

0.40

Criciuma U20

1.14

allows per match

Internacional SC U20

4.10

Criciuma U20

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional SC U20+0.00on par

Criciuma U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional SC U20 ↓

Criciuma U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–112%

0–215%

0–313%

0–49%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Internacional SC U20 or draw

18%

Internacional SC U20 or Criciuma U20

87%

Draw or Criciuma U20

95%

Winning margin

Internacional SC U20 wins by 2+

1%

Criciuma U20 wins by 2+

61%

Team goals

Internacional SC U20 1+ goals

40%

Internacional SC U20 2+ goals

9%

Internacional SC U20 3+ goals

2%

Criciuma U20 1+ goals

93%

Criciuma U20 2+ goals

73%

Criciuma U20 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Internacional SC U20 (draw refunded)

6%

Criciuma U20 (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional SC U20 at home — creates 0.40, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

Criciuma U20 away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional SC U20 attack 0.40 + Criciuma U20 defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.51

Criciuma U20 attack 1.14 + Internacional SC U20 defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Internacional SC U20 scores more

5%

level

13%

Criciuma U20 scores more

82%

Criciuma U20 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Criciuma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff