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Criciuma U20 vs Internacional SC U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Criciuma U20
Criciuma U20
FT
11 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Internacional SC U20
Internacional SC U20
7/16/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 20Centro de Treinamentos do Criciúma Esporte Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Criciuma U2092%
×Draw6%
Internacional SC U202%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Criciuma U20
3.82
Internacional SC U20
0.52

Criciuma U20 creates 635% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 10 away

creates per match

Criciuma U20
2.44
Internacional SC U20
0.40

allows per match

Criciuma U20
0.63
Internacional SC U20
5.20

finishing

Criciuma U20+0.00on par
Internacional SC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma U20 ↓

Internacional SC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Criciuma U20 or draw
98%
Criciuma U20 or Internacional SC U20
94%
Draw or Internacional SC U20
8%

Winning margin

Criciuma U20 wins by 2+
79%
Internacional SC U20 wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Criciuma U20 1+ goals
98%
Criciuma U20 2+ goals
88%
Criciuma U20 3+ goals
71%
Internacional SC U20 1+ goals
41%
Internacional SC U20 2+ goals
10%
Internacional SC U20 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Criciuma U20 (draw refunded)
98%
Internacional SC U20 (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma U20 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Internacional SC U20 away — creates 0.40, concedes 5.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma U20 attack 2.44 + Internacional SC U20 defence 5.20 → ÷2 → 3.82

Internacional SC U20 attack 0.40 + Criciuma U20 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Criciuma U20 scores more
92%
level
6%
Internacional SC U20 scores more
2%

Criciuma U20 at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Criciuma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense U20: Criciuma U20 11–0 Internacional SC U20

Criciuma U20 beat Internacional SC U20 11-0 in Catarinense U20 on July 16, 2024.

The match was played at Centro de Treinamentos do Criciúma Esporte Clube in Criciúma, Santa Catarina.