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Internacional RS W vs Fluminense W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Internacional RS W
Internacional RS W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fluminense W
Fluminense W
3/20/2024Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 2Campo do SESC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Internacional RS W49%
×Draw24%
Fluminense W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional RS W
1.67
Fluminense W
1.15

Internacional RS W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 22 away

creates per match

Internacional RS W
1.70
Fluminense W
1.18

allows per match

Internacional RS W
1.13
Fluminense W
1.64

finishing

Internacional RS W+0.00on par
Fluminense W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional RS W ↓

Fluminense W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Internacional RS W or draw
74%
Internacional RS W or Fluminense W
76%
Draw or Fluminense W
51%

Winning margin

Internacional RS W wins by 2+
26%
Fluminense W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Internacional RS W 1+ goals
81%
Internacional RS W 2+ goals
50%
Internacional RS W 3+ goals
23%
Fluminense W 1+ goals
68%
Fluminense W 2+ goals
32%
Fluminense W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)
65%
Fluminense W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional RS W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Fluminense W away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional RS W attack 1.70 + Fluminense W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Fluminense W attack 1.18 + Internacional RS W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Internacional RS W scores more
49%
level
24%
Fluminense W scores more
26%

Internacional RS W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Internacional RS W 1–1 Fluminense W

Internacional RS W and Fluminense W drew 1-1 in Brasileiro Women on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Campo do SESC in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.