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Fluminense W vs Internacional RS W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Fluminense W
Fluminense W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Internacional RS W
Internacional RS W
4/12/2025Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Proletário Guilherme da Silveira Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fluminense W35%
×Draw28%
Internacional RS W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense W
1.14
Internacional RS W
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 64 away

creates per match

Fluminense W
1.00
Internacional RS W
1.48

allows per match

Fluminense W
0.85
Internacional RS W
1.27

finishing

Fluminense W+0.00on par
Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense W ↓

Internacional RS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fluminense W or draw
63%
Fluminense W or Internacional RS W
72%
Draw or Internacional RS W
65%

Winning margin

Fluminense W wins by 2+
14%
Internacional RS W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fluminense W 1+ goals
68%
Fluminense W 2+ goals
32%
Fluminense W 3+ goals
11%
Internacional RS W 1+ goals
69%
Internacional RS W 2+ goals
33%
Internacional RS W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fluminense W (draw refunded)
49%
Internacional RS W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Internacional RS W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense W attack 1.00 + Internacional RS W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Internacional RS W attack 1.48 + Fluminense W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fluminense W scores more
35%
level
28%
Internacional RS W scores more
37%

Internacional RS W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Fluminense W 0–0 Internacional RS W

Fluminense W and Internacional RS W drew 0-0 in Brasileiro Women on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Proletário Guilherme da Silveira Filho in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.