Internacional RS W 1–0 Cruzeiro W: Result & Stats

Internacional RS W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cruzeiro W

3/26/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Morada dos Quero-Queros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Internacional RS W42%

×Draw24%

Cruzeiro W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional RS WExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.39

Internacional RS W

1.56

Cruzeiro W

1.39

Internacional RS W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 57 away

1.70

creates per match

1.65

1.13

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Internacional RS W

1.70

Cruzeiro W

1.65

allows per match

Internacional RS W

1.13

Cruzeiro W

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Cruzeiro W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional RS W ↓

Cruzeiro W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Internacional RS W or draw

66%

Internacional RS W or Cruzeiro W

76%

Draw or Cruzeiro W

58%

Winning margin

Internacional RS W wins by 2+

21%

Cruzeiro W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Internacional RS W 1+ goals

79%

Internacional RS W 2+ goals

46%

Internacional RS W 3+ goals

21%

Cruzeiro W 1+ goals

75%

Cruzeiro W 2+ goals

40%

Cruzeiro W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)

55%

Cruzeiro W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional RS W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Cruzeiro W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional RS W attack 1.70 + Cruzeiro W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cruzeiro W attack 1.65 + Internacional RS W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Internacional RS W scores more

42%

level

24%

Cruzeiro W scores more

34%

Internacional RS W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff