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Cruzeiro W vs Internacional RS W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Cruzeiro W
Cruzeiro W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Internacional RS W
Internacional RS W
4/21/2026Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Cruzeiro W43%
×Draw24%
Internacional RS W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro W
1.60
Internacional RS W
1.38

Cruzeiro W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 64 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro W
1.93
Internacional RS W
1.48

allows per match

Cruzeiro W
1.27
Internacional RS W
1.27

finishing

Cruzeiro W+0.00on par
Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro W ↓

Internacional RS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cruzeiro W or draw
67%
Cruzeiro W or Internacional RS W
76%
Draw or Internacional RS W
57%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro W wins by 2+
22%
Internacional RS W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cruzeiro W 1+ goals
80%
Cruzeiro W 2+ goals
47%
Cruzeiro W 3+ goals
22%
Internacional RS W 1+ goals
75%
Internacional RS W 2+ goals
40%
Internacional RS W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro W (draw refunded)
56%
Internacional RS W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

Internacional RS W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro W attack 1.93 + Internacional RS W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.60

Internacional RS W attack 1.48 + Cruzeiro W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cruzeiro W scores more
43%
level
24%
Internacional RS W scores more
33%

Cruzeiro W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cruzeiro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Cruzeiro W 1–2 Internacional RS W

Internacional RS W beat Cruzeiro W 2-1 in Brasileiro Women on April 21, 2026.