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Internacional RS W vs America Mineiro W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Internacional RS W
Internacional RS W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
America Mineiro W
America Mineiro W
6/7/2025Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Francisco Novelletto Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Internacional RS W54%
×Draw23%
America Mineiro W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional RS W
1.88
America Mineiro W
1.18

Internacional RS W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 22 away

creates per match

Internacional RS W
1.70
America Mineiro W
1.23

allows per match

Internacional RS W
1.13
America Mineiro W
2.05

finishing

Internacional RS W+0.00on par
America Mineiro W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional RS W ↓

America Mineiro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Internacional RS W or draw
76%
Internacional RS W or America Mineiro W
77%
Draw or America Mineiro W
46%

Winning margin

Internacional RS W wins by 2+
31%
America Mineiro W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Internacional RS W 1+ goals
85%
Internacional RS W 2+ goals
56%
Internacional RS W 3+ goals
29%
America Mineiro W 1+ goals
69%
America Mineiro W 2+ goals
33%
America Mineiro W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)
69%
America Mineiro W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional RS W at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

America Mineiro W away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional RS W attack 1.70 + America Mineiro W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.88

America Mineiro W attack 1.23 + Internacional RS W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Internacional RS W scores more
54%
level
23%
America Mineiro W scores more
24%

Internacional RS W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Internacional RS W 3–2 America Mineiro W

Internacional RS W beat America Mineiro W 3-2 in Brasileiro Women on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Francisco Novelletto Neto in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.