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America Mineiro W vs Internacional RS W — Brasileiro Women 2018

America Mineiro W
America Mineiro W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Internacional RS W
Internacional RS W
3/16/2024Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 1Arena Gregorão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

America Mineiro W34%
×Draw28%
Internacional RS W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America Mineiro W
1.16
Internacional RS W
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 64 away

creates per match

America Mineiro W
1.05
Internacional RS W
1.48

allows per match

America Mineiro W
1.00
Internacional RS W
1.27

finishing

America Mineiro W+0.00on par
Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro W ↓

Internacional RS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

America Mineiro W or draw
62%
America Mineiro W or Internacional RS W
72%
Draw or Internacional RS W
66%

Winning margin

America Mineiro W wins by 2+
14%
Internacional RS W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

America Mineiro W 1+ goals
69%
America Mineiro W 2+ goals
32%
America Mineiro W 3+ goals
11%
Internacional RS W 1+ goals
71%
Internacional RS W 2+ goals
35%
Internacional RS W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro W (draw refunded)
47%
Internacional RS W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Internacional RS W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro W attack 1.05 + Internacional RS W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Internacional RS W attack 1.48 + America Mineiro W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

America Mineiro W scores more
34%
level
28%
Internacional RS W scores more
38%

Internacional RS W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America Mineiro W vs Internacional RS W

America Mineiro W and Internacional RS W drew 1-1 in Brasileiro Women on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Gregorão in Contagem, Minas Gerais.