Internacional Palmira 3–0 Barranquilla

Internacional Palmira

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Barranquilla

3/25/2025

Primera B · Apertura - 8Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Internacional Palmira52%

×Draw27%

Barranquilla21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional PalmiraExpected goals in this matchBarranquilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.79

Internacional Palmira

1.42

Barranquilla

0.79

Internacional Palmira creates 80% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 135 away

1.23

creates per match

0.82

0.77

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Internacional Palmira

1.23

Barranquilla

0.82

allows per match

Internacional Palmira

0.77

Barranquilla

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional Palmira+0.00on par

Barranquilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Palmira ↓

Barranquilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Internacional Palmira or draw

79%

Internacional Palmira or Barranquilla

73%

Draw or Barranquilla

48%

Winning margin

Internacional Palmira wins by 2+

26%

Barranquilla wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Internacional Palmira 1+ goals

76%

Internacional Palmira 2+ goals

41%

Internacional Palmira 3+ goals

17%

Barranquilla 1+ goals

55%

Barranquilla 2+ goals

19%

Barranquilla 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Internacional Palmira (draw refunded)

71%

Barranquilla (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Palmira at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Barranquilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.61 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Palmira attack 1.23 + Barranquilla defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Barranquilla attack 0.82 + Internacional Palmira defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Internacional Palmira scores more

52%

level

27%

Barranquilla scores more

21%

Internacional Palmira at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Internacional Palmira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff