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Barranquilla vs Internacional Palmira — Primera B 2018

Barranquilla
Barranquilla
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Internacional Palmira
Internacional Palmira
2/21/2026Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 6Estadio Romelio Martinez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Barranquilla38%
×Draw28%
Internacional Palmira34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barranquilla
1.23
Internacional Palmira
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 136 home / 49 away

creates per match

Barranquilla
1.21
Internacional Palmira
1.16

allows per match

Barranquilla
1.11
Internacional Palmira
1.24

finishing

Barranquilla+0.00on par
Internacional Palmira+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barranquilla ↓

Internacional Palmira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Barranquilla or draw
66%
Barranquilla or Internacional Palmira
72%
Draw or Internacional Palmira
62%

Winning margin

Barranquilla wins by 2+
17%
Internacional Palmira wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Barranquilla 1+ goals
71%
Barranquilla 2+ goals
35%
Barranquilla 3+ goals
13%
Internacional Palmira 1+ goals
68%
Internacional Palmira 2+ goals
32%
Internacional Palmira 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barranquilla (draw refunded)
53%
Internacional Palmira (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barranquilla at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Internacional Palmira away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barranquilla attack 1.21 + Internacional Palmira defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Internacional Palmira attack 1.16 + Barranquilla defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barranquilla scores more
38%
level
28%
Internacional Palmira scores more
34%

Barranquilla at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Barranquilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Barranquilla 0–4 Internacional Palmira

Internacional Palmira beat Barranquilla 4-0 in Primera B on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Romelio Martinez in Barranquilla.