Internacional de Madrid 2–1 Ibiza: Result & Stats

Internacional de Madrid

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ibiza

Jaime Siaj 44'

Jesús Moyano 17'

D. Mendoza 47'

3/1/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Internacional de Madrid37%

×Draw27%

Ibiza36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchIbiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.23

Internacional de Madrid

1.27

Ibiza

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 14 away

1.82

creates per match

1.21

1.24

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Ibiza

1.21

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Ibiza

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Ibiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Ibiza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

64%

Internacional de Madrid or Ibiza

73%

Draw or Ibiza

63%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

16%

Ibiza wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

72%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

36%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

14%

Ibiza 1+ goals

71%

Ibiza 2+ goals

35%

Ibiza 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

51%

Ibiza (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Ibiza away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Ibiza defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ibiza attack 1.21 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

37%

level

27%

Ibiza scores more

36%

Internacional de Madrid at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Jesús Moyano

38'

P. Cornud← Fran Grimà

44'

Jaime Siaj

46'

Ángel Rodado← Borja Giner

47'

D. Mendoza

59'

Chevi← Junior

66'

J. Moyano

66'

J. Moyano

71'

Aitor Núñez← Adrián Mance

75'

Raí Nascimento← K. Sibo

89'

Daniel Gallardo← Rubén Ramos

Internacional

Ibiza

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

59'▲Chevi←▼Junior

71'▲Aitor Núñez←▼Adrián Mance

89'▲Daniel Gallardo←▼Rubén Ramos

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

CheviNúñezGallardoSánchezGómezArkineValero

Manager: Pablo Alfaro

38'▲P. Cornud←▼Fran Grimà

46'▲Ángel Rodado←▼Borja Giner

75'▲Raí Nascimento←▼K. Sibo

Ibiza substitutes

CornudRodadoNascimentoMachucaParreñoFuenteArranz

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 2–1 Ibiza

Internacional de Madrid beat Ibiza 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 1, 2020.

Goals: Jesús Moyano (17'), Jaime Siaj (44'), D. Mendoza (47').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte in Boadilla del Monte.

Internacional de Madrid vs Ibiza — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 2–1 Ibiza