Ibiza 2–0 Internacional de Madrid: Result & Stats

Ibiza

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

Ángel Rodado 75'

Javi Lara 68'

10/13/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ibiza59%

×Draw25%

Internacional de Madrid16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IbizaExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.67

Ibiza

1.56

Internacional de Madrid

0.67

Ibiza creates 133% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

1.71

creates per match

0.76

0.57

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ibiza

1.71

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Ibiza

0.57

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw

84%

Ibiza or Internacional de Madrid

75%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

41%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+

32%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals

79%

Ibiza 2+ goals

46%

Ibiza 3+ goals

21%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

49%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

15%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)

79%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.71 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.56

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Ibiza defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ibiza scores more

59%

level

25%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

16%

Ibiza at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

D. Mendoza← Cirio

63'

Arthur← Junior

65'

N. Arkine← Alvar Herrero

68'

Javi Lara

73'

M. Gómez← Gonzalo de la Fuente

75'

M. Boselli← Aitor Núñez

75'

Ángel Rodado

85'

Pep Caballé← Javi Lara

Ibiza

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Pablo Alfaro

62'▲D. Mendoza←▼Cirio

73'▲M. Gómez←▼Gonzalo de la Fuente

85'▲Pep Caballé←▼Javi Lara

Ibiza substitutes

MendozaGómezCaballéCarbiàGrimàParreñoSibo

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

63'▲Arthur←▼Junior

65'▲N. Arkine←▼Alvar Herrero

75'▲M. Boselli←▼Aitor Núñez

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

ArthurArkineBoselliGallardoPedroMarcãoValero