Internacional de Madrid 2–3 Deportivo La Coruna

Internacional de Madrid

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo La Coruna

David Barral 49'

Jesús Moyano 44'

William de Camargo 90+1'

Borja Granero 56'

Noel López 20'

1/23/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid40%

×Draw27%

Deportivo La Coruna33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Coruna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.19

Internacional de Madrid

1.33

Deportivo La Coruna

1.19

Internacional de Madrid creates 12% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 68 away

1.82

creates per match

1.15

1.24

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Deportivo La Coruna

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

67%

Internacional de Madrid or Deportivo La Coruna

73%

Draw or Deportivo La Coruna

60%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

74%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

38%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

55%

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.33

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

40%

level

27%

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

33%

Internacional de Madrid at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Borja Granero← Pablo Trigueros

20'

23'

28'

44'

49'

56'

61'

Álvaro Rey← Mario Soriano

64'

Pitu← Álvaro Martín

67'

F. Reguera

73'

Miku

74'

Arthur

78'

William de Camargo← Noel López

80'

Álex Zambrano← David Barral

80'

Álvaro Montero← Reguera

82'

A. Zambrano

90+5'

A. Montero

90'

Alberto Gil← Adrián Mance

90+1'

William de Camargo

Internacional

Deportivo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Barral

Ramos

Blázquez

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

64'▲Pitu←▼Álvaro Martín

80'▲Álex Zambrano←▼David Barral

80'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Reguera

90'▲Alberto Gil←▼Adrián Mance

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

PituZambranoMonteroGilMasogoExpósitoSiuKolderiuBravoGonzálezArribasWashington

Manager: Borja Jiménez

15'▲Borja Granero←▼Pablo Trigueros

61'▲Álvaro Rey←▼Mario Soriano

78'▲William de Camargo←▼Noel López

Deportivo La Coruna substitutes

GraneroReyCamargoQuilesDoncelAguirreCalaveraBreaPekeVicenteTrilli