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Deportivo La Coruna vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
CANC
17:30
Internacional de Madrid
Internacional de Madrid
8/27/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna59%
×Draw25%
Internacional de Madrid16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruna
1.55
Internacional de Madrid
0.67

Deportivo La Coruna creates 131% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna
1.69
Internacional de Madrid
0.76

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna
0.57
Internacional de Madrid
1.42

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par
Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Internacional de Madrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw
84%
Deportivo La Coruna or Internacional de Madrid
75%
Draw or Internacional de Madrid
41%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
31%
Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
46%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
20%
Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals
49%
Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals
15%
Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
79%
Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.57 · 68 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.69 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.55

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more
59%
level
25%
Internacional de Madrid scores more
16%

Deportivo La Coruna at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo La Coruna face Internacional de Madrid (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Deportivo La Coruna hosting Internacional de Madrid. Match starts August 27, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportivo La Coruna host Internacional de Madrid at Estadio Abanca-Riazor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.