Internacional de Madrid 3–2 Cultural Leonesa

Internacional de Madrid

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cultural Leonesa

Álvaro Martín 90+3'

Pedro Empis 74' (OG)

Adrián Mance 39'

Sergio Buenacasa 80'

Aarón Piñán 16'

9/19/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid46%

×Draw25%

Cultural Leonesa29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.20

Internacional de Madrid

1.56

Cultural Leonesa

1.20

Internacional de Madrid creates 30% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 88 away

1.82

creates per match

1.16

1.24

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Cultural Leonesa

1.16

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Cultural Leonesa

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

71%

Internacional de Madrid or Cultural Leonesa

75%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

54%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

23%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

79%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

46%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

21%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

70%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

34%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

61%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

46%

level

25%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

29%

Internacional de Madrid at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Arthur

16'

Aarón Piñán

17'

Jorge Moreno← Marc Rovirola

26'

A. Pinan

39'

Adrián Mance

44'

P. Empis

46'

Sergio Buenacasa← Aarón Piñán

55'

Kenneth Soler← Alberto Gil

56'

F. Reguera

70'

Ander Vitoria← Álvaro Juan

70'

Galder Cerrajería← N. Obolskiy

73'

Álvaro Martín← Pitu

74'

Pedro EmpisOwn goal

79'

Nahuel Arroyo← Pedro Empis

80'

G. Cerrajeria

80'

Sergio Buenacasa

86'

Álvaro Montero← Reguera

86'

S. Brulmans← Adrián Mance

90'

J. Amelibia

90+3'

Álvaro Martín

Internacional

Cultural

Frías

Galas

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

55'▲Kenneth Soler←▼Alberto Gil

73'▲Álvaro Martín←▼Pitu

86'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Reguera

86'▲S. Brulmans←▼Adrián Mance

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

SolerMartínMonteroBrulmansMasogoSiuBarralBravoBlázquezGonzálezArribas

Manager: Ramón

17'▲Jorge Moreno←▼Marc Rovirola

46'▲Sergio Buenacasa←▼Aarón Piñán

70'▲Ander Vitoria←▼Álvaro Juan

70'▲Galder Cerrajería←▼N. Obolskiy

79'▲Nahuel Arroyo←▼Pedro Empis

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

MorenoBuenacasaVitoriaCerrajeríaArroyoKlinarSotresSuárez

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Cultural Leonesa

Internacional de Madrid beat Cultural Leonesa 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 19, 2021.

Goals: Aarón Piñán (16'), Adrián Mance (39'), Pedro Empis (74' o.g.), Sergio Buenacasa (80'), Álvaro Martín (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Cultural Leonesa