Cultural Leonesa 1–1 Internacional de Madrid

Cultural Leonesa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Internacional de Madrid

Aarón Piñán 49'

David Barral 19'

5/14/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Cultural Leonesa51%

×Draw27%

Internacional de Madrid22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.83

Cultural Leonesa

1.42

Internacional de Madrid

0.83

Cultural Leonesa creates 71% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 33 away

1.41

creates per match

0.76

0.91

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.41

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.91

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

78%

Cultural Leonesa or Internacional de Madrid

73%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

49%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

25%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

76%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

41%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

17%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

56%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

20%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

70%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

51%

level

27%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

22%

Cultural Leonesa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

19'

45'

45'

46'

Aarón Piñán← K. Kalvin

46'

Ander Vitoria← Jaime Sierra

46'

L. Marín← Álvaro Martín

49'

Aarón Piñán

52'

S. Brulmans← Alberto Gil

67'

Álvaro Montero← Adrián Mance

67'

Marcos Bravo← David Barral

72'

Pedro Empis← Julen Castañeda

77'

N. Obolskiy

78'

J. Moyano

79'

Nahuel Arroyo← Alberto Solís

81'

F. Escobar

90+5'

Álex Masogo← Rubén Ramos

Cultural

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Curro Torres

46'▲Aarón Piñán←▼K. Kalvin

46'▲Ander Vitoria←▼Jaime Sierra

72'▲Pedro Empis←▼Julen Castañeda

79'▲Nahuel Arroyo←▼Alberto Solís

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

PiñánVitoriaEmpisArroyoBenitoLópezMorenoBuenacasaFríasCerrajeríaÁlamoMangana

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

46'▲L. Marín←▼Álvaro Martín

52'▲S. Brulmans←▼Alberto Gil

67'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Adrián Mance

67'▲Marcos Bravo←▼David Barral

90+5'▲Álex Masogo←▼Rubén Ramos

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

MarínBrulmansMonteroBravoMasogoSiuSolerPituCamara

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cultural Leonesa 1–1 Internacional de Madrid

Cultural Leonesa and Internacional de Madrid drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 14, 2022.

Goals: David Barral (19'), Aarón Piñán (49').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.

Cultural Leonesa vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cultural Leonesa 1–1 Internacional de Madrid