Internacional de Madrid 2–2 Celta de Vigo II

Internacional de Madrid

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Celta de Vigo II

Rufo 43'

Rubén Ramos 5'

Dani Molina 71'

E. Apeh 9'

8/25/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid44%

×Draw25%

Celta de Vigo II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.29

Internacional de Madrid

1.56

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

Internacional de Madrid creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 120 away

1.82

creates per match

1.33

1.24

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

68%

Internacional de Madrid or Celta de Vigo II

75%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

56%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

22%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

79%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

46%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

21%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

72%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

37%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

58%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

44%

level

25%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

32%

Internacional de Madrid at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Rubén Ramos

9'

E. Apeh

43'

Rufo

56'

David Álvarez← Y. Yeboah

56'

M. Rodríguez← Alberto Solís

61'

Aitor Núñez← Diego Simón

71'

L. De León← Diego Pampín

71'

Dani Molina

72'

Aythami Perera← Rufo

82'

M. Boselli← N. Arkine

Internacional

Celta

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Rufo

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

61'▲Aitor Núñez←▼Diego Simón

72'▲Aythami Perera←▼Rufo

82'▲M. Boselli←▼N. Arkine

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

NúñezPereraBoselliArthurMarcãoValeroPedro

Manager: Jacobo Montes

56'▲David Álvarez←▼Y. Yeboah

56'▲M. Rodríguez←▼Alberto Solís

71'▲L. De León←▼Diego Pampín

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

ÁlvarezRodríguezLeónVegaFontánManganaFernández