Celta de Vigo II 5–0 Internacional de Madrid

Celta de Vigo II

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

Dani Vega 90+1'

E. Apeh 71'

Y. Yeboah 63'

Alberto Solís 52'

Sergio Bermejo 40'

1/12/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Celta de Vigo II52%

×Draw26%

Internacional de Madrid23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celta de Vigo IIExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.94

Celta de Vigo II

1.55

Internacional de Madrid

0.94

Celta de Vigo II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 33 away

1.68

creates per match

0.76

1.12

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II

1.68

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II

1.12

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw

77%

Celta de Vigo II or Internacional de Madrid

74%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

48%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

27%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

79%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

46%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

20%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

61%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

24%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

69%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.55

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more

52%

level

26%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

23%

Celta de Vigo II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

R. Sanchez

30'

R. Sanchez

40'

Sergio Bermejo

46'

David Del Pozo← Adrián Mance

52'

Alberto Solís

62'

Daniel Gallardo← Alvar Herrero

63'

Y. Yeboah

67'

Gabri Veiga← Sergio Bermejo

69'

N. Arkine← Chevi

71'

E. Apeh

72'

Dani Vega← Dani Molina

75'

Jacobo González← E. Apeh

88'

M. Farrando

88'

M. Farrando

90+1'

Dani Vega

Celta

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Apeh

Manager: Jacobo Montes

67'▲Gabri Veiga←▼Sergio Bermejo

72'▲Dani Vega←▼Dani Molina

75'▲Jacobo González←▼E. Apeh

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

VeigaVegaGonzálezVieitesManganaCisséCarreira

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

46'▲David Del Pozo←▼Adrián Mance

62'▲Daniel Gallardo←▼Alvar Herrero

69'▲N. Arkine←▼Chevi

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

PozoGallardoArkineGuzmánMoyanoJuniorValero

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Celta de Vigo II 5–0 Internacional de Madrid

Celta de Vigo II beat Internacional de Madrid 5-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 12, 2020.

Goals: Sergio Bermejo (40'), Alberto Solís (52'), Y. Yeboah (63'), E. Apeh (71'), Dani Vega (90+1').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro in Vigo.

Celta de Vigo II vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Celta de Vigo II 5–0 Internacional de Madrid