Internacional de Madrid 2–3 Calahorra

Internacional de Madrid

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Calahorra

Adrián Mance 51'

Arthur 15'

David Soto 71'

Martínez-Losa 54'

Álex Arias 49'

10/3/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Internacional de Madrid44%

×Draw26%

Calahorra30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchCalahorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.15

Internacional de Madrid

1.47

Calahorra

1.15

Internacional de Madrid creates 28% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

1.82

creates per match

1.05

1.24

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Calahorra

1.05

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Calahorra

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Calahorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

70%

Internacional de Madrid or Calahorra

74%

Draw or Calahorra

56%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

22%

Calahorra wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

77%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

43%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

18%

Calahorra 1+ goals

68%

Calahorra 2+ goals

32%

Calahorra 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

60%

Calahorra (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Calahorra away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Calahorra defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.47

Calahorra attack 1.05 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

44%

level

26%

Calahorra scores more

30%

Internacional de Madrid at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

49'

51'

52'

54'

57'

David Barral← Álvaro Martín

57'

Kenneth Soler← Pitu

61'

David Soto← Jon Madrazo

66'

Cera

68'

Lander Yurrebaso← Martínez-Losa

68'

Manu Ramírez← Álex Arias

71'

David Soto

72'

Alberto Gil← Dani Siu

76'

A. Mancebo

77'

R. Ramos

79'

Álvaro Montero← Alvar Herrero

79'

Marcos Bravo← Rubén Ramos

83'

Andoni Ugarte← Cera

83'

Imanol Barace← Carlos Vicente

89'

M. Bravo

89'

F. Reguera

Internacional

Calahorra

▼

⚽

▼

Arias

▼

Madrazo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

57'▲David Barral←▼Álvaro Martín

57'▲Kenneth Soler←▼Pitu

72'▲Alberto Gil←▼Dani Siu

79'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Alvar Herrero

79'▲Marcos Bravo←▼Rubén Ramos

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

BarralSolerGilMonteroBravoMasogoZambranoKolderiuBlázquezGonzález

Manager: Eduardo Docampo

61'▲David Soto←▼Jon Madrazo

68'▲Lander Yurrebaso←▼Martínez-Losa

68'▲Manu Ramírez←▼Álex Arias

83'▲Andoni Ugarte←▼Cera

83'▲Imanol Barace←▼Carlos Vicente

Calahorra substitutes

SotoYurrebasoRamírezUgarteBaraceGrandeSarriegiMartínezRodríguezMarcén