Calahorra 1–2 Internacional de Madrid

Calahorra

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Internacional de Madrid

Carlos Vicente 34'

Adrián Mance 77'

Álvaro Martín 8'

5/1/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Calahorra48%

×Draw27%

Internacional de Madrid25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalahorraExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.96

Calahorra

1.44

Internacional de Madrid

0.96

Calahorra creates 50% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

1.47

creates per match

0.76

1.16

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Calahorra

1.47

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Calahorra

1.16

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw

75%

Calahorra or Internacional de Madrid

73%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

52%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+

24%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals

76%

Calahorra 2+ goals

42%

Calahorra 3+ goals

18%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

62%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

25%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)

66%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.47 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Calahorra defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Calahorra scores more

48%

level

27%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

25%

Calahorra at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Álvaro Martín

34'

Carlos Vicente

40'

A. Gil

55'

Jon Madrazo← Álex Arias

64'

T. Aguado

72'

L. Marín← Álvaro Martín

74'

Ander Zoilo← Imanol Barace

77'

Adrián Mance

80'

A. Montero

84'

Albert Torras← Cera

86'

Marcos Bravo← Alberto Gil

Calahorra

Internacional

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Eduardo Docampo

55'▲Jon Madrazo←▼Álex Arias

74'▲Ander Zoilo←▼Imanol Barace

84'▲Albert Torras←▼Cera

Calahorra substitutes

MadrazoZoiloTorrasZubiriMartínezSola

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

72'▲L. Marín←▼Álvaro Martín

86'▲Marcos Bravo←▼Alberto Gil

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

MarínBravoSiuSolerKolderiuYelco

Match Recap: Calahorra vs Internacional de Madrid

Internacional de Madrid beat Calahorra 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 1, 2022.

Goals: Álvaro Martín (8'), Carlos Vicente (34'), Adrián Mance (77').

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.

Calahorra vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Calahorra vs Internacional de Madrid