Internacional de Madrid 3–0 Athletic Club II

Internacional de Madrid

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Athletic Club II

Álvaro Martín 33'

Arthur 29'

Pitu 13'

12/12/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid49%

×Draw25%

Athletic Club II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.13

Internacional de Madrid

1.64

Athletic Club II

1.13

Internacional de Madrid creates 45% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 56 away

1.82

creates per match

1.02

1.24

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Athletic Club II

1.02

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Athletic Club II

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Athletic Club II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

74%

Internacional de Madrid or Athletic Club II

75%

Draw or Athletic Club II

51%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

26%

Athletic Club II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

81%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

49%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

23%

Athletic Club II 1+ goals

68%

Athletic Club II 2+ goals

31%

Athletic Club II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

65%

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Athletic Club II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.64

Athletic Club II attack 1.02 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

49%

level

25%

Athletic Club II scores more

26%

Internacional de Madrid at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

20'

25'

29'

33'

46'

46'

Malcom Adu← San Bartolomé

46'

Unai Naveira← Beñat Prados

59'

Álex Zambrano← Álex Masogo

62'

Pitu

63'

E. Urain← Jon Cabo

63'

Mikel Goti← Andoni Tascón

66'

David Barral← Pitu

67'

Alvar Herrero← Marcos Bravo

75'

Ander Lorente← Mikel Kortazar

76'

Alberto Gil← Adrián Mance

76'

Kenneth Soler← Álvaro Martín

90+2'

R. Ramos

Internacional

Athletic

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Pitu

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

59'▲Álex Zambrano←▼Álex Masogo

66'▲David Barral←▼Pitu

67'▲Alvar Herrero←▼Marcos Bravo

76'▲Alberto Gil←▼Adrián Mance

76'▲Kenneth Soler←▼Álvaro Martín

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

ZambranoBarralHerreroGilSolerMonteroSiuKolderiuArribasGonzález

Manager: Imanol de la Sota

46'▲Malcom Adu←▼San Bartolomé

46'▲Unai Naveira←▼Beñat Prados

63'▲E. Urain←▼Jon Cabo

63'▲Mikel Goti←▼Andoni Tascón

75'▲Ander Lorente←▼Mikel Kortazar

Athletic Club II substitutes

AduNaveiraUrainGotiLorenteIruAgirreGuruzetaSilleroUriarte