Athletic Club II vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 33+ matches
Athletic Club II46%
Internacional de Madrid25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Athletic Club II creates 46% more chances
Season form · 57 home / 33 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Athletic Club II ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches
Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Athletic Club II attack 1.12 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27
Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Athletic Club II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.87
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Athletic Club II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Algeciras
San Fernando CD
Sanluqueño
Linense
Tamaraceite
Cádiz II
Las Palmas II
Recreativo Huelva
Marbella
Marino
Ucam Murcia
Linares Deportivo
Real Betis II
Sevilla Atletico
Cordoba
Real Murcia
Granada II
El Ejido
Yeclano
Lorca Deportiva
Zamora
Unionistas de Salamanca
Celta de Vigo II
Racing Ferrol
Deportivo La Coruna
Compostela
Pontevedra
Coruxo
Salamanca UDS
Guijuelo
Burgos
Cultural Leonesa
Real Valladolid II
Numancia
Langreo
Marino de Luanco
Real Oviedo II
Lealtad
Sporting Gijón II
Covadonga
Real Sociedad II
AmorebietaAthletic Club II
Real Unión
Racing Santander
Laredo
Arenas Getxo
Portugalete
Deportivo Alavés II
Barakaldo
Leioa
Tudelano
Calahorra
SD Logroñés
Ebro
Mutilvera
Osasuna II
Tarazona
Ejea
Izarra
Haro Deportivo
Gimnastic
Barcelona B
FC Andorra
Badalona
Llagostera
Lleida Esportiu
Cornellà
L'Hospitalet
Prat
Espanyol II
Olot
Ibiza
Alcoyano
Villarreal II
Hércules
La Nucía
Levante II
Atzeneta
Peña Deportiva
Orihuela
Valencia II
SS Reyes
Real Madrid IIInternacional de Madrid
Rayo Majadahonda
Atlético Baleares
Navalcarnero
Las Rozas
Atlético Madrid II
Poblense
Getafe II
Badajoz
Extremadura
CF Talavera
Villanovense
Don Benito
Mérida AD
Melilla
Villarrubia
Socuéllamos
VillarrobledoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Athletic Club II host Internacional de Madrid on Sunday, 13 March 2022 at 11:00. The match is part of the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019/2020 season.
Athletic Club II 1 – 0 Internacional de Madrid
Athletic Club II beat Internacional de Madrid 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 13, 2022.
Goals: Juan Artola (47' pen).
The match was played at Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2 in Lezama.