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Internacional de Bogota vs Union Magdalena — Copa Colombia 2019

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
7/28/2022Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Quarter-finalsEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Internacional de Bogota36%
×Draw29%
Union Magdalena35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.09
Union Magdalena
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.00
Union Magdalena
1.25

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
0.90
Union Magdalena
1.19

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par
Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Union Magdalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
65%
Internacional de Bogota or Union Magdalena
71%
Draw or Union Magdalena
64%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
14%
Union Magdalena wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
66%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
30%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
10%
Union Magdalena 1+ goals
66%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
29%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
51%
Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.00 + Union Magdalena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Union Magdalena attack 1.25 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
36%
level
29%
Union Magdalena scores more
35%

Internacional de Bogota at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Internacional de Bogota 1–1 Union Magdalena

Internacional de Bogota and Union Magdalena drew 1-1 in Copa Colombia on July 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..