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Internacional de Bogota vs Gremio — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gremio
Gremio
5/28/2021CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Internacional de Bogota27%
×Draw29%
Gremio44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
0.91
Gremio
1.23

Gremio creates 35% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.00
Gremio
1.45

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.00
Gremio
0.82

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par
Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Gremio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
56%
Internacional de Bogota or Gremio
71%
Draw or Gremio
73%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
9%
Gremio wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
60%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
23%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
6%
Gremio 1+ goals
71%
Gremio 2+ goals
35%
Gremio 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
39%
Gremio (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.00 + Gremio defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Gremio attack 1.45 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
27%
level
29%
Gremio scores more
44%

Gremio at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Internacional de Bogota 0–0 Gremio

Internacional de Bogota and Gremio drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.