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Gremio vs Internacional de Bogota — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Gremio
Gremio
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
4/22/2021CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Gremio57%
×Draw23%
Internacional de Bogota21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio
1.87
Internacional de Bogota
1.03

Gremio creates 82% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Gremio
2.18
Internacional de Bogota
1.33

allows per match

Gremio
0.73
Internacional de Bogota
1.56

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gremio or draw
79%
Gremio or Internacional de Bogota
77%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
43%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+
33%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals
85%
Gremio 2+ goals
56%
Gremio 3+ goals
29%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
64%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
28%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)
73%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 2.18 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.87

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.33 + Gremio defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gremio scores more
57%
level
23%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
21%

Gremio at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Gremio 2–1 Internacional de Bogota

Gremio beat Internacional de Bogota 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 22, 2021.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.