Internacional de Bogota vs Envigado — Primera A 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 101+ matches
Internacional de Bogota48%
Envigado24%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Internacional de Bogota creates 59% more chances
Season form · 118 home / 101 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Internacional de Bogota ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.97 · 118 matches
Envigado away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 101 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Internacional de Bogota attack 1.19 + Envigado defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30
Envigado attack 0.68 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.82
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Internacional de Bogota at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Rionegro Aguilas
Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
Junior
Millonarios
Deportivo Cali
Alianza PetroleraLa Equidad
Bucaramanga
Deportivo Pasto
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
Union Magdalena
Huila
Deportivo Pereira
Chico
JaguaresEnvigadoRionegro AguilasMillonariosAtletico NacionalAmerica de CaliChicoAlianza PetroleraIndependiente MedellinDeportivo PastoJuniorSanta FeLa EquidadDeportivo PereiraDeportes TolimaDeportivo CaliBucaramangaEnvigadoOnce CaldasJaguaresUnion MagdalenaHuilaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Internacional de Bogota host Envigado on Monday, 22 January 2024 at 23:10. The match is part of the Primera A 2021/2022 season.
Match Recap: Internacional de Bogota vs Envigado
Internacional de Bogota and Envigado drew 0-0 in Primera A on January 22, 2024.
Envigado controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 24.
The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..