Internacional de Bogota 1–1 Envigado

Internacional de Bogota

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Envigado

D. Camacho 41'

Y. Rodallega 90+2'

7/21/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Internacional de Bogota47%

×Draw28%

Envigado25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.89

Internacional de Bogota

1.33

Envigado

0.89

Internacional de Bogota creates 49% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 40 away

1.22

creates per match

0.72

1.05

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.22

Envigado

0.72

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.05

Envigado

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

75%

Internacional de Bogota or Envigado

72%

Draw or Envigado

53%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

22%

Envigado wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

74%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

38%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

15%

Envigado 1+ goals

59%

Envigado 2+ goals

22%

Envigado 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

65%

Envigado (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 58 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.22 + Envigado defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Envigado attack 0.72 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

47%

level

28%

Envigado scores more

25%

Internacional de Bogota at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

D. Camacho

Internacional de Bogota · F

7.9

Match Events

41'

45+1'

46'

46'

52'

63'

W. Hurtado← F. Charrupí

66'

Joan Castro

77'

S. López← J. Rojas

77'

J. Hernández← J. Lloreda

78'

Luis Gomez

80'

J. Jaramillo← L. Gómez

90+6'

Jackson Jaramillo

90+2'

Y. Rodallega↳ R. España

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalEnvigado

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots2

3Corners4

13Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots2

4On Target1

2Off Target1

6Blocked0

2Inside Box1

10Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

376Total Passes276

289Accurate Passes178

77%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Primera A: Internacional de Bogota 1–1 Envigado

Internacional de Bogota and Envigado drew 1-1 in Primera A on July 21, 2023.

Goals: D. Camacho (41'), Y. Rodallega (90+2').

Internacional de Bogota controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 2.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..

Internacional de Bogota vs Envigado — Primera A 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Internacional de Bogota 1–1 Envigado