Internacional de Bogota 3–1 Envigado

Internacional de Bogota

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Envigado

3/12/2021

Primera A · Apertura - 12Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Internacional de Bogota48%

×Draw29%

Envigado24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.83

Internacional de Bogota

1.30

Envigado

0.83

Internacional de Bogota creates 57% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 152 away

1.22

creates per match

0.76

0.90

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.22

Envigado

0.76

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

0.90

Envigado

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

76%

Internacional de Bogota or Envigado

71%

Draw or Envigado

52%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

22%

Envigado wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

73%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

37%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

14%

Envigado 1+ goals

56%

Envigado 2+ goals

20%

Envigado 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

67%

Envigado (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.90 · 169 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.22 + Envigado defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Envigado attack 0.76 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

48%

level

29%

Envigado scores more

24%

Internacional de Bogota at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff