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Internacional de Bogota vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2025

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
F. Bone 90' (pen)
F. Sanguinetti 51'
R. Renteria 61'
S. Acosta 45'
3/18/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 12Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Bogota52%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Pereira22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.50
Deportivo Pereira
0.88

Internacional de Bogota creates 70% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 33 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.28
Deportivo Pereira
0.70

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.06
Deportivo Pereira
1.73

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Deportivo Pereira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
78%
Internacional de Bogota or Deportivo Pereira
74%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira
48%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
26%
Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
78%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
44%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
19%
Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
70%
Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.28 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.70 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
52%
level
26%
Deportivo Pereira scores more
22%

Internacional de Bogota at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
Larry VásquezInternacional de BogotaInternacional de Bogota · M
8.5

Match Events

40'
Yulián Gómez
45'
S. Acosta
51'
F. Sanguinetti↳ D. Moncada
61'
R. Renteria↳ S. Urrea
64'
Jorge Martínez
89'
Danilo Ortiz
90'
F. BonePenalty

Possession

63%Internacional

Shots

26Internacional

Pass accuracy

52%Internacional

Statistics

InternacionalDeportivo
Overview
63%Possession37%
26Total Shots9
2.76Expected Goals (xG)0.88
11Corners4
5Fouls8
Shots
26Total Shots9
8On Target6
12Off Target3
6Blocked0
16Inside Box5
10Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
494Total Passes312
436Accurate Passes257
88%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
0.09Goals Prevented0.09
Discipline
5Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2

Primera A: Internacional de Bogota 2–2 Deportivo Pereira

Internacional de Bogota and Deportivo Pereira drew 2-2 in Primera A on March 18, 2026.

Goals: S. Acosta (45'), F. Sanguinetti (51'), R. Renteria (61'), F. Bone (90' pen).

Internacional de Bogota controlled possession (63%) and registered 26 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.