Deportivo Pereira vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Deportivo Pereira51%
Internacional de Bogota24%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportivo Pereira creates 59% more chances
Season form · 32 home / 51 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo Pereira ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches
Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo Pereira attack 1.38 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62
Internacional de Bogota attack 0.82 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Deportivo Pereira at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Atletico Nacional
Junior
Deportes Tolima
Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
Bucaramanga
Once Caldas
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pasto
Águilas Doradas
Millonarios
Deportivo Cali
Llaneros
Alianza ValleduparInternacional de Bogota
ChicoDeportivo Pereira
Union Magdalena
Envigado
Jaguares
CucutaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Deportivo Pereira host Internacional de Bogota on Friday, 15 November 2024 at 00:00. The match is part of the Primera A 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Internacional de Bogota
Deportivo Pereira beat Internacional de Bogota 4-3 in Primera A on November 15, 2024.
Goals: É. Ricardo (3'), Y. Quiñones (5'), S. Aguilar (11'), D. Quintero (15'), L. Riascos (32'), L. Escalante (85'), J. Ríos (89').
Deportivo Pereira controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 23.
The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.