Internacional de Bogota 0–0 Deportivo Pasto

Internacional de Bogota

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Pasto

8/31/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 9Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Internacional de Bogota43%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Pasto28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.95

Internacional de Bogota

1.25

Deportivo Pasto

0.95

Internacional de Bogota creates 32% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 52 away

1.22

creates per match

0.85

1.05

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.22

Deportivo Pasto

0.85

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.05

Deportivo Pasto

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

72%

Internacional de Bogota or Deportivo Pasto

71%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

57%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

71%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

36%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

61%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

25%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

61%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 58 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.22 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportivo Pasto attack 0.85 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

43%

level

29%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

28%

Internacional de Bogota at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

M. Rodas

Internacional de Bogota · D

7.3

Match Events

42'

Jean ColoradoCard upgrade

44'

Kevin Parra

44'

Jean Colorado

45+1'

Facundo Boné

54'

Yair Joao Abonia Vasquez

60'

Fabian Villa

66'

D. Castillo← F. Espinal

67'

Yoshan Valois

71'

Joider Micolta

72'

Joider MicoltaVAR

77'

J. Bolivar← K. Parra Atehortua

78'

M. Monaco← S. Mayo

82'

D. Copete← J. Masllorens

82'

F. Jaramillo← F. Villa

82'

W. F. Ordonez← J. Mendez

82'

84'

86'

90+3'

90+2'

90+2'

90+1'

F. Chaverra← J. Castilla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalDeportivo

Overview

45%Possession55%

4Total Shots12

4Corners2

12Fouls19

Shots

4Total Shots12

1On Target1

2Off Target9

1Blocked2

1Inside Box5

3Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

279Total Passes340

226Accurate Passes282

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls19

3Yellow Cards5

2Red Cards2

2Offsides0