Deportivo Pasto 2–3 Internacional de Bogota

Deportivo Pasto

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Internacional de Bogota

K. Londoño 39'

C. Mafla 21'

L. Escalante 83'

J. Rojas 56'

K. Viveros 52'

4/23/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 18Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 171+ matches

Deportivo Pasto47%

×Draw28%

Internacional de Bogota25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.88

Deportivo Pasto

1.33

Internacional de Bogota

0.88

Deportivo Pasto creates 51% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 171 away

1.26

creates per match

0.90

0.85

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.26

Internacional de Bogota

0.90

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.85

Internacional de Bogota

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

75%

Deportivo Pasto or Internacional de Bogota

72%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

22%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

15%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

59%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

22%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

66%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 173 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 171 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.26 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.90 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

47%

level

28%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

25%

Deportivo Pasto at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Rojas

Internacional de Bogota · F

8.2

Match Events

21'

C. Mafla↳ S. Gómez

39'

K. Londoño↳ C. Arrieta

41'

Kevin David Salazar← A. Torralvo

41'

D. Camacho← É. Ricardo

45+2'

Victor Mejia

45+1'

Victor MejiaCard upgrade

52'

K. Viveros↳ Kevin David Salazar

53'

Israel Alba

56'

J. Rojas↳ F. Viáfara

68'

L. Escalante← Kevin Andrés Salazar

79'

D. Contreras← S. Tréllez

83'

L. Escalante↳ A. Correa

86'

F. Villa← I. Alba

86'

D. Castillo← Kevin David Salazar

86'

J. Ceballos← K. Viveros

88'

D. Riascos← G. Charrupí

90+1'

Nicolas Gil

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoInternacional

Overview

35%Possession65%

5Total Shots18

2Corners7

7Fouls7

Shots

5Total Shots18

2On Target5

2Off Target7

1Blocked6

3Inside Box8

2Outside Box10

Passing

35%Possession65%

256Total Passes463

161Accurate Passes386

63%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

6Offsides3