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Internacional de Bogota vs Deportivo Pasto — Primera A 2018

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
7/28/2021Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 169+ matches

Internacional de Bogota46%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Pasto25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.27
Deportivo Pasto
0.84

Internacional de Bogota creates 51% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 172 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.22
Deportivo Pasto
0.79

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
0.90
Deportivo Pasto
1.32

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par
Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Deportivo Pasto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
75%
Internacional de Bogota or Deportivo Pasto
71%
Draw or Deportivo Pasto
54%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
72%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
36%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
57%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
21%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
65%
Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.90 · 169 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.32 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.22 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Pasto attack 0.79 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
46%
level
29%
Deportivo Pasto scores more
25%

Internacional de Bogota at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Internacional de Bogota 0–0 Deportivo Pasto

Internacional de Bogota and Deportivo Pasto drew 0-0 in Primera A on July 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..