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Internacional de Bogota vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
J. Ceballos 25'
J. Lloreda 21'
3/9/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 11Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Internacional de Bogota40%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Cali29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.12
Deportivo Cali
0.91

Internacional de Bogota creates 23% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.17
Deportivo Cali
0.87

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
0.94
Deportivo Cali
1.07

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.33scores more
Deportivo Cali+0.30scores more

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
71%
Internacional de Bogota or Deportivo Cali
70%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
60%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
67%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
31%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
10%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
60%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
58%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 10 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.17 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Deportivo Cali attack 0.87 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
40%
level
30%
Deportivo Cali scores more
29%

Internacional de Bogota at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. RojasInternacional de BogotaInternacional de Bogota · M
7.9

Match Events

21'
J. Lloreda
25'
J. Ceballos↳ J. Rojas
41'
D. Castillo
57'
A. Palacios← J. Marulanda
57'
F. Castillo← L. Villegas
58'
A. Andrade← J. Barrera
66'
A. Mejia
66'
J. Rojas
68'
B. Fernández← D. Castillo
70'
J. Moreno
78'
J. Mina← J. Moreno
78'
F. Chaverra← J. Lloreda
84'
Kevin Andrés Salazar← J. Ceballos
86'
G. Cabezas← Y. Gómez
86'
J. Castilla← K. Osorio

Possession

32%Internacional

Shots

18Internacional

Pass accuracy

46%Internacional

Statistics

InternacionalDeportivo
Overview
32%Possession68%
18Total Shots11
2Corners10
15Fouls5
Shots
18Total Shots11
5On Target3
11Off Target7
2Blocked1
10Inside Box6
8Outside Box5
Passing
32%Possession68%
234Total Passes489
163Accurate Passes406
70%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls5
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Primera A: Internacional de Bogota 2–0 Deportivo Cali

Internacional de Bogota beat Deportivo Cali 2-0 in Primera A on March 9, 2024.

Goals: J. Lloreda (21'), J. Ceballos (25').

Deportivo Cali controlled possession (68%) and registered 11 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..