Deportivo Cali 1–1 Internacional de Bogota

Deportivo Cali

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional de Bogota

F. Meza 20'

A. Torralvo 51'

9/21/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Cali48%

×Draw28%

Internacional de Bogota24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.86

Deportivo Cali

1.33

Internacional de Bogota

0.86

Deportivo Cali creates 55% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.10

creates per match

0.81

0.91

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.10

Internacional de Bogota

0.81

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.91

Internacional de Bogota

1.56

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.21scores less

Internacional de Bogota-0.06on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

76%

Deportivo Cali or Internacional de Bogota

72%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

22%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

15%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

58%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

21%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

66%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.91 · 9 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.10 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.81 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

48%

level

28%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

24%

Deportivo Cali at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

G. Cabezas

Deportivo Cali · M

7.6

Match Events

3'

Kevin Salazar

19'

Alexander Mejía

20'

F. Meza↳ J. Cantillo

35'

B. Castro← J. Ceballos

36'

J. Lloreda← K. Salazar

36'

É. Ricardo← S. Gómez

51'

A. Torralvo↳ B. Castro

52'

Anderson Plata

55'

K. Osorio← J. Cantillo

64'

D. Valencia← F. Ángel

64'

R. Bustamante← A. Mejía

66'

A. Del Valle← L. Riascos

79'

J. Mina← D. Castillo

89'

C. Colmán← F. Montero

90+2'

Kelvin Osorio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoInternacional

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots11

5Corners3

5Fouls4

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target4

3Off Target5

2Blocked2

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

284Total Passes338

202Accurate Passes265

71%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls4

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

4Offsides0