Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Internacional de Bogota vs Aragua FC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aragua FC
Aragua FC
4/30/2021CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Internacional de Bogota63%
×Draw22%
Aragua FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.90
Aragua FC
0.80

Internacional de Bogota creates 137% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.00
Aragua FC
0.60

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.00
Aragua FC
2.80

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par
Aragua FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Aragua FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
85%
Internacional de Bogota or Aragua FC
78%
Draw or Aragua FC
37%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
38%
Aragua FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
85%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
56%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
29%
Aragua FC 1+ goals
55%
Aragua FC 2+ goals
19%
Aragua FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
81%
Aragua FC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Aragua FC away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.00 + Aragua FC defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Aragua FC attack 0.60 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
63%
level
22%
Aragua FC scores more
15%

Internacional de Bogota at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Aragua FC

Internacional de Bogota beat Aragua FC 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.