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Aragua FC vs Internacional de Bogota — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Aragua FC
Aragua FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
5/13/2021CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aragua FC27%
×Draw24%
Internacional de Bogota49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragua FC
1.18
Internacional de Bogota
1.67

Internacional de Bogota creates 42% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Aragua FC
0.80
Internacional de Bogota
1.33

allows per match

Aragua FC
2.00
Internacional de Bogota
1.56

finishing

Aragua FC+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragua FC ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Aragua FC or draw
51%
Aragua FC or Internacional de Bogota
76%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
73%

Winning margin

Aragua FC wins by 2+
11%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Aragua FC 1+ goals
69%
Aragua FC 2+ goals
33%
Aragua FC 3+ goals
12%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
81%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
50%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Aragua FC (draw refunded)
36%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragua FC at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragua FC attack 0.80 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.18

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.33 + Aragua FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aragua FC scores more
27%
level
24%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
49%

Internacional de Bogota at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aragua FC vs Internacional de Bogota

Internacional de Bogota beat Aragua FC 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.