Internacional de Bogota 3–2 Alianza Valledupar

Internacional de Bogota

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Alianza Valledupar

F. Acosta 89'

A. Del Valle 50'

L. Escalante 12'

E. Batalla 90+9' (pen)

S. Aponzá 45+2'

11/2/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 16Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Internacional de Bogota42%

×Draw31%

Alianza Valledupar27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.81

Internacional de Bogota

1.10

Alianza Valledupar

0.81

Internacional de Bogota creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.17

creates per match

0.68

0.94

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.17

Alianza Valledupar

0.68

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

0.94

Alianza Valledupar

1.04

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.33scores more

Alianza Valledupar+0.07on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

73%

Internacional de Bogota or Alianza Valledupar

69%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

58%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

17%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

67%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

30%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

10%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

56%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

19%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

61%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 10 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.04 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.17 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.68 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

42%

level

31%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

27%

Internacional de Bogota at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Del Valle

Internacional de Bogota · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

Felipe Acosta

9'

Ruben Manjarres

12'

L. Escalante↳ A. Del Valle

31'

37'

37'

39'

39'

42'

45+2'

46'

46'

46'

50'

66'

66'

67'

D. Castillo← A. Del Valle

70'

E. Torres← S. Aponzá

72'

Edwin Torres

80'

B. Agrón← J. Mina

80'

J. Mahecha← L. Escalante

89'

F. Acosta↳ É. Ricardo

90+6'

Pedro FrancoPenalty confirmed

90+2'

J. Ceballos← É. Ricardo

90+9'

E. BatallaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalAlianza

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots8

3Corners5

18Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots8

6On Target2

7Off Target4

1Blocked2

7Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

314Total Passes401

246Accurate Passes332

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls7

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

2Offsides4

Primera A: Internacional de Bogota 3–2 Alianza Valledupar

Internacional de Bogota beat Alianza Valledupar 3-2 in Primera A on November 2, 2024.

Goals: L. Escalante (12'), S. Aponzá (45+2'), A. Del Valle (50'), F. Acosta (89'), E. Batalla (90+9' pen).

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..

Internacional de Bogota vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Internacional de Bogota 3–2 Alianza Valledupar