Alianza Valledupar 0–3 Internacional de Bogota

Alianza Valledupar

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Bogota

D. Camacho 90+3'

É. Ricardo 89'

K. Viveros 77'

4/15/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 16Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Alianza Valledupar47%

×Draw27%

Internacional de Bogota27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.02

Alianza Valledupar

1.44

Internacional de Bogota

1.02

Alianza Valledupar creates 41% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.31

creates per match

0.81

1.23

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.31

Internacional de Bogota

0.81

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.23

Internacional de Bogota

1.56

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar-0.40scores less

Internacional de Bogota-0.06on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

73%

Alianza Valledupar or Internacional de Bogota

73%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

53%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

23%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

76%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

42%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

18%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

64%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

27%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

64%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 11 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.81 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

47%

level

27%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

27%

Alianza Valledupar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Rojas

Internacional de Bogota · F

9.2

Match Events

21'

29'

32'

40'

46'

J. Lloreda← J. Mahecha

49'

49'

59'

59'

61'

63'

F. Acosta← Kevin Andrés Salazar

74'

N. Reyes← R. Blanco

74'

A. Morales← S. Acosta

75'

D. Camacho← D. Castillo

77'

J. Rueda← C. Hurtado

77'

K. Viveros↳ J. Rojas

80'

José Lloreda

81'

J. Ceballos← F. Acosta

85'

87'

89'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaInternacional

Overview

51%Possession49%

5Total Shots23

4Corners7

12Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots23

2On Target7

3Off Target10

0Blocked6

4Inside Box8

1Outside Box15

Passing

51%Possession49%

331Total Passes318

262Accurate Passes247

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota

Internacional de Bogota beat Alianza Valledupar 3-0 in Primera A on April 15, 2024.

Goals: K. Viveros (77'), É. Ricardo (89'), D. Camacho (90+3').

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (51%) and registered 5 shots to 23.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.

Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota