Intergym 0–2 Huétor Tájar: Result & Stats

Intergym

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Huétor Tájar

4/2/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 31Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Intergym19%

×Draw22%

Huétor Tájar59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IntergymExpected goals in this matchHuétor Tájar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.93

Intergym

1.00

Huétor Tájar

1.93

Huétor Tájar creates 93% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 109 away

0.56

creates per match

1.11

2.75

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Intergym

0.56

Huétor Tájar

1.11

allows per match

Intergym

2.75

Huétor Tájar

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Intergym+0.00on par

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intergym ↓

Huétor Tájar →

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Intergym or draw

41%

Intergym or Huétor Tájar

78%

Draw or Huétor Tájar

81%

Winning margin

Intergym wins by 2+

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Intergym 1+ goals

63%

Intergym 2+ goals

26%

Intergym 3+ goals

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals

85%

Huétor Tájar 2+ goals

57%

Huétor Tájar 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Intergym (draw refunded)

25%

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Intergym at home — creates 0.56, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Intergym attack 0.56 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.00

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Intergym defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Intergym scores more

19%

level

22%

Huétor Tájar scores more

59%

Huétor Tájar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Huétor Tájar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff