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Huétor Tájar vs Intergym — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Intergym
Intergym
12/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Huétor Tájar77%
×Draw15%
Intergym8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Tájar
2.46
Intergym
0.63

Huétor Tájar creates 290% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 16 away

creates per match

Huétor Tájar
1.49
Intergym
0.25

allows per match

Huétor Tájar
1.01
Intergym
3.44

finishing

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par
Intergym+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Tájar ↓

Intergym →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Huétor Tájar or draw
92%
Huétor Tájar or Intergym
85%
Draw or Intergym
23%

Winning margin

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
55%
Intergym wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
91%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
70%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
44%
Intergym 1+ goals
47%
Intergym 2+ goals
13%
Intergym 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
91%
Intergym (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Tájar at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 110 matches

Intergym away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Tájar attack 1.49 + Intergym defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.46

Intergym attack 0.25 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Huétor Tájar scores more
77%
level
15%
Intergym scores more
8%

Huétor Tájar at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Huétor Tájar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Tájar 7–0 Intergym

Huétor Tájar beat Intergym 7-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto in Huétor Tájar.